Modeling the Factors Influencing the Occurrence of Economic Crises in Sudan Using Logistic Regression (2011–2023)

Abstract

This study aimed to determine the relationship between political changes, internal conflicts, inflation, and foreign investment growth with the occurrence of economic crises. The impact of political and economic variables on economic crises in Sudan was analyzed using an appropriate statistical model. Logistic regression was employed to examine the effects of these variables. The results indicated that political changes and internal conflicts significantly influence the likelihood of economic crises. Additionally, an increase in foreign investment positively affects the probability of economic crises, while inflation showed no significant impact on the occurrence of economic crises in Sudan. Furthermore, logistic regression demonstrated its efficiency in analyzing the factors influencing economic crises by accurately identifying the most impactful variables.

The study recommended enhancing political stability and resolving internal conflicts. It also suggested that the government should adopt effective policies to control inflation and regulate foreign direct investment. Moreover, the study emphasized the importance of developing advanced analytical models that integrate time series models with logistic regression for economic crisis analysis. Additionally, it recommended utilizing logistic regression in economic policies as a predictive tool to assist policymakers in taking preventive measures against potential crises